The expansion of lithium battery cathode materials is accelerating. In June alone, many leading enterprises have taken intensive actions. On June 22, dangsheng technology plans to raise funds of no more than 4.645 billion yuan for the construction of cathode materials and other projects. Changzhou phase II project plans to invest 2.471 billion yuan to build a 50000 T / a high nickel cathode material production line; Jiangsu dangsheng phase IV project plans to invest 1.096 billion yuan to build a 20000 t / a digital cathode material production line. According to the announcement, the capacity of dangsheng technology is expected to be 44000 tons in 2021 and over 109000 tons by 2025.
On June 18, Fulin Seiko disclosed its plan for non-public offering, with the total amount of funds to be raised not exceeding 1.5 billion yuan to invest in projects with an annual output of 50000 tons of new energy lithium battery cathode materials. The project is planned to be implemented by Sichuan Fulin, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jiangxi Shenghua, a subsidiary of Fulin Seiko holdings. By the end of 2020, Jiangxi sublimation lithium iron phosphate cathode material has a mass production capacity of 12000 tons / year.
The day before, rongbai technology Guizhou company officially started the project of annual output of 100000 tons of lithium battery cathode materials (phase II). The project will produce high nickel cathode materials mainly based on ncm811 and NCA, and it is expected to build a global leading high nickel cathode material production line by the end of 2024. In addition to the Guizhou project, rongbai technology also started the large-scale capacity expansion work in Ezhou, Hubei, Yuyao, Zhejiang and Zhongzhou, South Korea. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the high nickel three yuan cathode capacity will reach more than 120000 tons.
On June 15, Cologne Xinneng's IPO application was accepted, and it plans to raise 613 million yuan to invest in the construction project of 12000 tons of high-performance power battery ternary precursor and 4000 tons of high-performance power battery ternary cathode materials. On June 11, the IPO of Zhenhua new materials science and Technology Innovation Board held a meeting, and it is planned to raise 1.2 billion yuan, of which shawen phase II will form an annual production capacity of 12000 tons of cathode materials; Yilong phase II will form an annual production capacity of 20000 tons of ternary materials.
At present, the iteration of ternary cathode materials leads the technical upgrading of batteries, and the upgrading from the early 1-series to 8-series has been completed. With the improvement of consumers' requirements for vehicle endurance and cost, the iteration of battery energy density upgrading and cathode material system will not stop. With the continuous decline of subsidies, the technology of vehicle enterprises and power battery enterprises is forced to develop towards high energy density, and the trend of high nickel is obvious. It is expected that the cathode materials ncm811 and NCA will be the mainstream development direction in the future.
On the other hand, in recent years, with the electric vehicle industry changing from subsidy driven to market driven, CTP, "blade" and other battery structure technology progress, lithium iron phosphate material will open up a new space in 2020, and the demand will rapidly reverse upward. In the past three years, the LiFePO4 material industry has experienced the survival of the fittest, the pattern is gradually clear, the cost advantage of the leading enterprises is obvious, and the profitability is expected to bottom up.
From the perspective of shipping volume, industry data show that in 2020, domestic ternary material shipping volume will be 236000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 22.92%; Domestic lithium iron phosphate cathode material shipment was 124000 tons, up 41.2% year on year. From the perspective of competition pattern, the competition pattern of domestic cathode market is relatively scattered, the market share gap of the top companies is small, and the market concentration is far lower than that of anode, diaphragm and electrolyte.
At present, power battery enterprises have started the production expansion plan one after another to further drive the substantial growth of the market demand for cathode materials. The total planned capacity of Ningde times is more than 550gwh; Funeng technology expects its production capacity to exceed 120gwh in 2025; Yiwei lithium energy previously planned to increase the power battery capacity to 50gwh by 2021, and later planned to invest in the construction of an annual output of more than 100GWh project in Jingmen; The planned capacity of AVIC lithium will exceed 300gwh by 2025; GuoXuan high tech expects its production capacity to reach 28gwh by the end of this year and more than 100GWh by 2025
According to the Research Report of Guosen Securities, the global demand for lithium batteries is expected to reach 1187gwh in 2025. Global power battery demand is expected to increase from 146gwh in 2020 to 933gwh in 2025; In 2025, the global consumption battery demand will reach 152gwh, and the energy storage battery demand is expected to reach 102gwh.
The agency also predicts that the global demand for lithium battery cathode materials will increase from 470000 tons in 2020 to 1.9 million tons in 2025. Domestic demand for lithium cathode materials is expected to increase from 238000 tons in 2020 to 868000 tons in 2025, and overseas demand for cathode materials is expected to be 1.03 million tons in 2025.
In terms of capital scale, Guosen Securities expects that the domestic lithium battery cathode material market will reach 83 billion yuan in 2025, the overseas cathode material market will reach 130 billion yuan, and the global cathode material demand market will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025.
Industry analysis shows that the supply and demand of domestic cathode industry chain is booming, and the price of upstream resources is rising, so the volume and price of cathode industry will rise simultaneously. In addition, the cathode industry follows the pricing mode of "raw material cost + processing fee + profit", and the reserve of low-cost raw materials will significantly increase the company's short-term performance. In the long run, the cathode industry is accelerating from low price competition to the situation of strong and constant strength, and the industry competition pattern is expected to be reshaped under the trend of high nickel.